|
|
 |
| |
|  |
Head of Handicapping's Blog
Welcome to Phil Smith's Blog. I am Head of Handicapping at the British Horseracing Authority and I will be updating this page every so often with my thoughts on key issues in the handicapping world.
You can also check out the weekly handicappers blog for all the latest updates from the team.
MOCKING THE HANDICAPPING SYSTEM? I THINK NOT!
19th May 2010
After fifteen years as a Handicapper I have become used to criticism from trainers and owners for a) putting their horses up too much and b) not dropping them enough. Over the last few years we have even had to get used to a new complaint, “you haven’t put my horse up enough” usually to try and get a run in a race, but sometimes when connections are trying to export the horse.
However, I never expected us to be criticised for dropping horses too much. Sure enough after the victories of Savaronola, Agapanthus and Jeu De Roseau, that was the tone of the article in Wednesday’s Racing Post by their occasional tipster Eddie 'The Shoe' Fremantle. "I find it remarkable that the horses he has been landing these gambles on are dropped so readily by the Handicappers." he opined.
So were they dropped so readily, and if so, were the drops justified?
Savaronola
A five year old who had never won after 11 attempts on the flat and over hurdles. He came to Britain from Ireland and ran in his first handicap in January 2009 at Southwell off a mark of 65. He finished 5th of 7 beaten around 8 lengths performing to 55 and we dropped him to 59.
In April 2009 he finished 8th of 14 off 59 beaten 16 lengths and performing 43. He was then off the course until this winter when he ran poorly in two hurdle races. When he won last week we had dropped him to 55. Thus he has been beaten a total of 24 lengths and had come down 10lbs. over 16 months. Is that too much? Is it excessive?
This week I have dropped Peter Tchaikovsky 8lbs for a poor run at York. After his previous poor run eleven days earlier he was dropped 5lbs. A total of 13lbs for two poor runs in less than a fortnight. Is this too much? Surely, if a horse is out of form, we should drop it to try and get it competitive.
Classic Punch ran his second poor race of the season this week and I dropped him another 5lbs on top of the 6lbs I dropped him last time. That makes eleven pounds for two poor runs. More than we dropped Savaronola.
Are we right to do this? I suspect the trainers think we are, but Mr.Fremantle perhaps does not. Or maybe he just thinks we should drop certain trainers' horses and not others. Or maybe it is fine to drop a horse a large amount as long as they don’t then win.
Agapanthus
Had won off 65 at Yarmouth in April 2009 and had been raised to 72. He was then off the course for over two months and ran in a race I dealt with and finished last on good to soft ground.
As his win was on good ground I took the view that it wasn’t weight that had beaten him but possibly the ground or a lack of fitness and as a result I left him on 72.
He next ran at Leicester in July and finished next to last beaten over 57 lengths. My colleague dropped him by one pound.
He was then off the course for three months, before finishing eighth beaten 14 lengths at Leicester. He was dropped by 3 pounds to 68.
Thus after three poor runs he had come down 4lbs. After a win that would be par for the course for any horse in Britain if it had subsequently run poorly, yet something we are often criticised for by trainers- "You put them up quickly but drop them slowly".
Quite right too as we have to uphold the integrity of British racing. So should we have dropped Agapanthus at all? If Mr Fremantle is suggesting that we should not have done then we would have to do that to all winners. I hope he will be available in my office on a Monday to take the complaining phone calls.
Agapanthus next finished last of eleven runners at Doncaster and was dropped from 68 to 66, certainly not an excessively large amount. He ended the 2009 season by finishing sixth of thirteen beaten 10 lengths at Nottingham and was dropped from 66 to 63.
Yes there were some awful runs in his c.v. which were nothing to do with the weight he carried but there were also a number of outings when he ran respectably but was beaten far enough to make us feel a drop was needed.
He often ran on ground with some give in it so should we have refused to drop him until he ran on his favoured good ground again? If we adopted that as a long term policy we would be consigning a mass of horses to be uncompetitive in a typical British summer.
So after five runs Agapanthus had come down a total of 9lbs. Is this a handicap system that has, to quote Eddie Fremantle, been "made a mockery of"? Or is it pretty much what we would have done to any horse in those circumstances?
Jeu De Roseau
A maiden came from Ireland with a British hurdle rating of 108. He ran in three Novice hurdles in 2007, beating a total of 2 horses and we dropped him to 100. Is this a system where horses “are dropped so readily by the Handicappers”? In Eddie Fremantle’s handicap system these "horses who are not competitive shouldn’t be running." That is for others to decide but for us Handicappers our job is to try and make them competitive.
He next ran in March 2008 at Towcester off 100 and again finished last and was dropped to 95. We had hardly been very generous to a horse that was blatantly struggling, for whatever reason. Again at Towcester in April, Jeu De Roseau managed to beat one horse home and we dropped him from 95 to 90. As he did not then run for over a year he was deleted from our files.
In April this year, over two years since his last run, we were contacted to give Jeu De Roseau a rating as he was now with a new trainer. His best performance figure since arriving in Britain was 79. We dropped him to 82. It would be standard practice with a horse that had shown nothing and then was off for two years. Our experience tells us that most horses find it difficult to be competitive after a lengthy absence off their original rating and need some help.
Only this week Coasting, who had good form when he was last running, won after an absence of 3 years. We had dropped him 7lbs for his time off and the horse was well backed into 15/2 and won by half a length. No mention of the Handicapper having dropped him too much just a compliment in the Racing Post for an excellent piece of training.
So where have we been over generous? Where is the mockery of the Handicap system? Everything we have done has actually been in moderation and in accordance with what we would do for any trainer. The question is, should we do it for every trainer? Eddie Fremantle evidently feels that we should discriminate between trainers, which in our view a very dangerous policy.
If we had dropped these horses “too much”, why was it not mentioned in the Racing Post in the morning before their races? The ratings had been in the public domain for weeks, if not months, and everybody, professionals and punters alike, had been given the opportunity to take them into account before they decided to run in or bet on these races.
I really do not believe that we dropped these horses too much and I am confident that we would have acted in the same way with any trainer. We pride ourselves on our consistency and our impartiality.
However in racing there always has to be somebody to blame, so in this case why not blame the Handicappers? However, the Racing Post didn’t spot our “error” before racing and some might say that Eddie Fremantle’s article was a classic case of after-timing.
The reality is that nobody ever complains when we drop a horse by however large an amount unless it wins, unless it is gambled on and unless it is trained by someone of whom they are suspicious.
GRAND NATIONAL- ANOTHER JAW-DROPPING RACEDAY
13th April 2010
I have now been lucky enough to have been the Handicapper on duty on five jaw-dropping moments in racing in the last six months.
First there was Sea The Stars stretching effortlessly away to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in early October. This was closely followed by Zenyatta’s last-to-first blitz at Santa Anita in Breeders’ Cup. Grown men, me included waved “Girl Power” posters after that race.
Back in Britain it was then only a few weeks to Denman’s second top-weight-carrying surge to victory in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, and this was closely followed by Kauto Star’s demolition of the field on Boxing Day in the King George. Has a British Grade 1 race ever been won by a distance before?
Now, the John Smith’s Grand National has given spectators, viewers, punters and professionals the feel-good factor with the triumph of Don’t Push It at Aintree, the culmination of yet another fantastic racing festival in my hometown.
I'll talk more about that later - the first race at Aintree that I looked after was the Totesport Bowl, now a Grade 1 Chase. Needless to say, it was disappointing that Imperial Commander did not confirm his performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup - but What A Friend had only been beaten by Denman this season and had already won the Grade 1 Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, so he was a worthy winner.
He was rated 159 going into the race and I believe he has run to his rating - basing this through the amazingly consistent runner-up Carruthers who has performed to 155 on four consecutive occasions. I have dropped the third, Nacarat, to 158, as his second in the Racing Post Chase has not worked out.
On the second day I was responsible for the Mildmay Novices Chase, and the horse top rated on official BHA figures - Burton Port - duly obliged. However it was a slow time with a muddling result and consequently I don’t believe that Burton Port showed his true superiority over the rest of the field.
In second place was Dance Island who appears to have performed to 145 but I have to admit that I'm sceptical about that.
We are always being unfairly accused of hammering horses that run well in this type of race, yet in this case I have only put Dance Island up four pounds - from 134 to 138 - when I could have been much harsher.
It means that he would receive seven from the third horse Take The Breeze (145) if they were to meet in a handicap, but I felt that the latter could not have run up to his best after making a serious error three fences out.
In behind Door Boy (6th) has "arithmetically" performed to 141 but I have left him on 137 and Rory Boy (9th) appears to have run to 135 but I have left him on 134. In slowly run races the beaten horses are often flattered and I'm doubtful that the form of this particular contest will work out.
On Saturday my first big handicap was the John Smith’s Handicap Chase, a Listed event over just over 3 miles. From Dawn To Dusk won in a time over 12 seconds faster than the Grade 2 Novice Chase the day before. That equates, on the ground, as the equivalent of about 60 lengths.
From Dawn To Dusk had been third in his previous handicap at the Cheltenham Festival and my colleague Stephen Hindle had put him up four pounds for that run. It just shows that going up for being placed in a handicap is no barrier to winning next time - even if the horse concerned is an 11-year-old!
Then it was on to the John Smith’s Grand National. Before the race I was pleased that the joint favourites were as high as 10/1 in the betting. However, the actual result was disappointing from a professional point of view as very few horses got into the race and the first two drew 20 lengths clear of the third.
However my personal pride had to take a back seat as it was obviously a great result for racing involving three men who had been trying to win the race for so long and who had eventually managed a thrilling and emotional victory.
Don’t Push It won off a rating of 153, but earlier in the season I had rated him 155 after a good second in the Servo Trophy at Cheltenham in November. He then ran below form when third in a Graduation Chase at Warwick behind Our Vic and originally I left him unchanged on 155.
However, when the third in the Cheltenham race struggled afterwards I dropped Don’t Push It by two pounds when I was doing the weights for the National. It just shows you - run in Graduation Chases and you might subsequently get dropped and win the greatest horse race in the world.
It also showed that the old chestnut that horses cannot win the John Smith’s Grand National carrying more than eleven stone is now well and truly buried: three of the last 6 winners have carried that weight, or over. Black Apalachi (a former Becher Chase winner at the track) ran an amazing race to be second as he was prominent the whole way and together with Conna Castle was responsible for the fastest time for 14 years.
Black Apalachi ran off 154 - although he was 155 in Ireland when I did the weights for the race. Subsequently he ran well to be second to his stable companion Vic Venturi in the Bobbyjo Chase and I had him performing to 159 there. It seems therefore straightforward to have him running to 159 here and I based the race around him.
The only question was what to call the five lengths between him and Don’t Push It. I called it six pounds, as understandably Tony McCoy was doing more celebrating than riding towards the end of the race. As a result Don’t Push It is to go up by 11 pounds from 153 to 164.
This is, as readers of the handicappers' main blog may realise, therefore the best performance by any horse running in the Grand National over the past decade - eclipsing Mon Mome (161 when winning in 2009).
I've dropped State Of Play by three pounds to 142 as he is the only horse in the race in my view that was "beaten by weight". I left the rating of Big Fella Thanks on 151 as for the second year in succession he appeared to be travelling supremely well but did not get home.
So now I am planning for next year and have already got an idea about what rating I will have Denman on if he is entered in the race and how much weight he will have to give to Don’t Push It and Black Apalachi. You will all find out next February...
THE FESTIVAL
23rd March 2010
In the early years of this century the Cheltenham Gold Cup was always a notoriously difficult race to rate. It was often slowly run and every year it seemed that a good Handicapper ran way above itself to finish in the money. I am thinking of the likes of Commanche Court, Harbour Pilot, Truckers Tavern and Sir Rembrandt. Inevitably the proximity of these horses limited the rating I could give to the winners.
Over the last three years that has not been the case. There has generally been a good pace to the race and the very good horses have come clear of the good Handicappers. Denman, ably assisted this year by the gallant Carruthers, has seen to that. As a result the class animals have put distance between themselves and the rest of the field and it has been possible to get high ratings for the winners.
This year it seemed to me fairly straightforward to get Imperial Commander to 185. Carruthers is mighty consistent and I have him performing to 155 on three occasions now this season. As a result Imperial Commander who beat him 30 lengths gets to 185.
I have Denman performing to 178, a few pounds off his best but I have left his rating on 182. For now I have left Kauto Star on 193 from the King George but I guess there will be some discussion of that in the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification Conference in May.
It also enabled me to restore Mon Mome to the figure of 155 which he runs off in the John Smith’s Grand National in a few weeks time. He was in fact due to run at Aintree off a basic rating of 148, but with a 7lb rise due to the 'Aintree Factor', i.e. he has shown form around those Aintree fences.
As it happens Imperial Commander comes out on 185 through a time and weight comparison with Baby Run in the Foxhunters Chase. A comparison between Mon Mome's third this year and Hedgehunter, second a few years ago, is interesting.
Hedgehunter won the John Smith’s Grand National carrying 11st. 1lbs. off a rating off 144 and Mon Mome won it off a rating of 148 carrying 11st. 0lbs. Very similar you will agree. The following year, Hedgehunter was second in the Gold Cup beaten two and a half lengths. This year Mon Mome was third beaten 30 lengths. This is a good illustration of how good horses can get closer to very good horses depending on the pace of the race.
Weapon’s Amnesty surprised a few of the English hotpots in the RSA chase by winning by 7 lengths and is credited with a performance of 159. This makes him a slightly above average winner of the race using a seven year comparison. Denman for example recorded 161 in 2007.
I was fairly pleased with both of my main handicaps at this year’s Festival as there was a close finish to both the William Hill and Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir races. A New Story won the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap by two and a half lengths which was further than I would like but there was only eight and a half lengths covering the first seven home which wasn’t too bad.
Every year in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival a lot of rubbish is written about the fairness of the handicap ratings allocated to horses by people who really should know better. Amazingly after each Festival it goes very quiet when the results invariably show that the BHA Handicappers have shown impartiality to everyone.
I enclose a table showing the Irish trained winners to runners over the last 11 years since I took over in late 1998. You will see that, despite a few lean years which you will get with a small statistical sample, Irish trained horses have won 25 Festival Handicaps from 389 runners giving a win percentage of 6.4%.
In all that time the British strike rate has never been above that figure. Perhaps the reality is that we are too lenient on Irish trained horses. We shall certainly investigate that for the 2011 Festival.
In recent years there have been complaints from some (not all) trainers in the North that, just like the Irish, they get a raw deal from us. So what is the truth? Over the last 5 Festivals, Northern trained horses have won 9 handicaps from 140 runners. Coincidentally that gives them a strike rate of 6.4% as well. Again maybe we are being too lenient on horses trained North of the River Trent.
PRE-CHELTENHAM THOUGHTS
9th March 2010
As we approach the Cheltenham Festival. It is difficult to decide which of the “big” races I am looking forward to most. Is it the Champion Hurdle which looks really open this year? Is it the Ryanair which appears to be improving as a competitive contest every year? Is it the World Hurdle with the Champion Big Buck’s taking on a rejuvenated Tidal Bay and former Gold Cup winner (and still a Grand National entry) War of Attrition? Or is it the Champion Chase with Master Minded apparently back somewhere near his best faced opposed by Twist Magic, Kalahari King and Big Zeb?
They are all mouth watering prospects but for me Kauto Star attempting to win his third Gold Cup in the face off with Denman is just sooo exciting. It is not by any means a two horse race. I have Imperial Commander on a rating of 174 and that would be high enough to have given Best Mate a run for his money in each of his three Gold Cup wins.
As a result of his rout of the opposition in the King George I now have Kauto Star on 193. I never thought I would ever use a rating of 180+ never mind anything in the 190’s but the three superstars from Somerset have all put up at least two performances at 180+ in their careers.
What can go wrong with Kauto Star then? If they both run to their best and of course it is a big IF then Kauto Star should win by around 11 lengths. That is around 2.5 seconds in time. When you see it written down like that, his supremacy doesn’t look nearly so pronounced. A horse can lose 2.5 seconds with an error at any fence.
Whatever the result if all of the top horses run anywhere near their best form we are in for a treat.
Inevitably the production of the Cheltenham handicaps last week has brought the usual complaints from across the Irish Sea that we are not fair to their horses. Let us look at the facts. Over the last 5 seasons, Irish horses have won 16 Festival handicaps from 217 runners. This gives them a strike rate of 7.4%. During the same period British trained horses have won 34 handicaps from 912 runners at a strike rate of 3.7%.
The reality is that the Irish have won at a rate of double the British trained horses. Methinks they do protest too much especially as in the same period British trained horses have won 1 handicap at the Punchestown Festival from 83 runners.
Not all of the Irish runners this year are running from ratings that are higher than they have in Ireland. We have a policy in Britain of dropping older horses who are not the force they were at a faster rate than is the case in Ireland. As a result 17 Irish trained horses have been assessed for the Festival handicaps off a lower rating than they currently have in Ireland.
In the rush to grab a provocative headline, neither the Racing Post journalists nor the Irish trainers have had the time to research who they are yet.
We also usually get criticised for our Cheltenham handicaps by Northern trainers. Sure enough this week Ferdy Murphy in the press claimed that Northern horses are assessed 5lbs. too high by us.
Again I looked back at the results at Cheltenham over recent years. From 2006 onwards, Northern trained horses have won 7 handicaps at the Festival from 108 runners at a strike rate of 6.5%. Not as high as the Irish, I agree but certainly way above the national average of 3.7%. Still never let the facts get in the way of a good headline.
Interestingly the seven Northern trained winners included four trained by Ferdy Murphy so we obviously didn’t have them 5lbs. too high. You’re Special won by 3.5 lengths, Joes Edge won by a short head, L’Antartique won by 2 lengths and Naiad Du Misselot won by a nose. We were very proud of the closeness of those finishes. If they had carried 5lbs. less we would not have been doing a very good job.
Astonishingly only last week Mr Murphy contacted Martin Greenwood one of my Senior Handicappers and told him he had one of his horses, King of Confusion 5lbs. too low, not too high. Confused yes we were too at first, until we realised it was because King of Confusion would have needed to be 5lbs. higher to get a run at the Cheltenham Festival!
|
|
|
